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Why You Gamble on Luck: 4 Biases That Hijack Your Risk Decisions
Episode 5 Mind over bias Cognitive biases Risk and reward
From casinos in Ho Chi Minh City to traders on Wall Street, our minds play tricks whenever chance and uncertainty are involved. In this deep dive, we unpack four powerful decision-making biases:
Gambler’s Fallacy – Expecting short-term randomness to “even out.”
Conservation of Luck – Believing good and bad luck must balance like cosmic bookkeeping.
Neglect of Probability – Overreacting to vivid risks and ignoring mundane ones.
Sunk Cost Fallacy – Throwing good money (or time) after bad because you’re “already invested.”
You’ll see real-world examples—from farmers near Kathmandu to Seville bureaucrats—and discover both system-level nudges (software warnings, re-framed progress bars) and personal defenses (independent-event reminders, zero-based thinking, basic stats literacy) that help you navigate risk more rationally.
0:00 Intro & Global Risk Stories (Ho Chi Minh gambler, NYC trader, Kathmandu farmer, Seville bureaucrat)
0:57 Pattern-Seeking & Gambler’s Fallacy Explained
2:40 Conservation of Luck: Cosmic Accounting of Wins & Losses
4:03 Neglect of Probability & Availability Bias in Risk Perception
6:11 Sunk Cost Fallacy: Why We Keep Throwing Money at Lost Causes
8:00 Applied Leverage: System-Level Nudges to Counter Biases
10:01 Personal Defense Strategies: Mental Reminders & Reframing
11:45 Bias-Spotter Challenge: Practice Observing Your Own Biases
13:00 Conclusion & Key Takeaways #Top 5 Game Đánh Bài Online Đổi Thưởng Uy Tín Nhất Hiện Nay | Tài Xỉu Kiếm Tiền Online 2023 # Casino trực tuyến toàn hot girl chia bài thế này làm sao chịu nổi # Trực tiếp thomo | Gà sinh đôi chơi với gà 4800 quá hấp dẫn
Episode 5 Mind over bias Cognitive biases Risk and reward
From casinos in Ho Chi Minh City to traders on Wall Street, our minds play tricks whenever chance and uncertainty are involved. In this deep dive, we unpack four powerful decision-making biases:
Gambler’s Fallacy – Expecting short-term randomness to “even out.”
Conservation of Luck – Believing good and bad luck must balance like cosmic bookkeeping.
Neglect of Probability – Overreacting to vivid risks and ignoring mundane ones.
Sunk Cost Fallacy – Throwing good money (or time) after bad because you’re “already invested.”
You’ll see real-world examples—from farmers near Kathmandu to Seville bureaucrats—and discover both system-level nudges (software warnings, re-framed progress bars) and personal defenses (independent-event reminders, zero-based thinking, basic stats literacy) that help you navigate risk more rationally.
0:00 Intro & Global Risk Stories (Ho Chi Minh gambler, NYC trader, Kathmandu farmer, Seville bureaucrat)
0:57 Pattern-Seeking & Gambler’s Fallacy Explained
2:40 Conservation of Luck: Cosmic Accounting of Wins & Losses
4:03 Neglect of Probability & Availability Bias in Risk Perception
6:11 Sunk Cost Fallacy: Why We Keep Throwing Money at Lost Causes
8:00 Applied Leverage: System-Level Nudges to Counter Biases
10:01 Personal Defense Strategies: Mental Reminders & Reframing
11:45 Bias-Spotter Challenge: Practice Observing Your Own Biases
13:00 Conclusion & Key Takeaways #Top 5 Game Đánh Bài Online Đổi Thưởng Uy Tín Nhất Hiện Nay | Tài Xỉu Kiếm Tiền Online 2023 # Casino trực tuyến toàn hot girl chia bài thế này làm sao chịu nổi # Trực tiếp thomo | Gà sinh đôi chơi với gà 4800 quá hấp dẫn